實地審核(Due diligence)真功夫

價值投資很少談放空(short selling)。基本上股票市場上放空就是借券交易，先跟第三方借券賣出，經過一段時間過後買回回補。預期價格下跌時，放空可以獲利。反之會遭受損失。
放空由於許多技術上的困難，例如借券的限制、限時回補、保證金成數等等，一般人很少做。理論上，放空頂多賺100%，但做多(例如價值投資)可以賺超過100%，理論上放空風險比做多要高。
大賣空這本書的內容，以房屋貸款為主的信用違約交換(CDS)為引子，貫穿整本情節，主角主要是針對投資銀行發行的眾多相關於次級房貸的衍生性金融商品之間的對賭，他們看到許多不合理的金融商品，華爾街的投資銀行將有毒資產加以包裝，經過信用評等公司的高評等，賣給不知情的投資人。他們看到這不合理的現象，進而努力調查發掘，長時間等待，終獲得最後的大勝利。

這調查研究的功夫，在投資領域來說，就是所謂的實地審核(due diligence)的功夫。

剛好這兩天看到一家很特別的公司Muddy Water Research LLC，中文翻成"混水研究有限公司"，他的公司簡介也非常有意思:

The Chinese have an old proverb, “浑水摸鱼” (muddy waters make it easy to catch fish). In other words, opacity creates opportunities to make money. This way of thinking has been part of Chinese culture for centuries, and it is institutionalized in the modern PRC.
Western investors and their regulatory systems are inherently unprepared for muddy waters environments. Moreover, Harvard-educated Chinese analysts based in New York usually have little more in common with Chinese company managers than you do. As a result, many sub-par Chinese companies find ways to game the system and trade at inflated values. At the same time, a number of well-run and well-positioned companies are underappreciated because their managements, often abandoned by RTO or IPO sponsors, are awkward to foreign investors.Western investors and their regulatory systems are inherently unprepared for muddy waters environments. Moreover, Harvard-educated Chinese analysts based in New York usually have little more in common with Chinese company managers than you do. As a result, many sub-par Chinese companies find ways to game the system and trade at inflated values. At the same time, a number of well-run and well-positioned companies are underappreciated because their managements, often abandoned by RTO or IPO sponsors, are awkward to foreign investors.

簡單說就是水清無魚，不透明才有利可圖，由於中西文化與法規素養不同，西方投資人容易受到正規教育制約而上當。看起來創辦人Carson Block 比許多台商還了解中國人與中國商業文化。
Muddy Water最近揭發許多在海外掛牌的中國公司虛假財報弊端而聲名大噪，從去年的東方紙業(Orient Paper)、綠諾國際(Rino International)、China Media Express到最近的Sino-forest，幾乎一面倒，大滿貫! 這幾家公司所做的的due diligence report放在這裡。當然這公司就是以放空當獲利的來源。這公司網頁上特別強調是一個"Due diligence-based equity research on Chinese companies"，所以due diligence是它的核心競爭力。
它有多自豪自己的due diligence能力呢? 看看它網頁裡的公開文章: 
The Six Rules of China Due Diligence
Rule #1 – Approach the company as a potential customer does.以客戶觀點去接觸這公司
Rule #2 – Take all company-provided introductions with a grain of salt對於公司所提供的資料要特別小心
Rule #3 – Try to construct your own fraud scenario.試著建立你想要詐欺的情境
Rule #4 – Forget about the paper. Focus on the operations.別管書面資料，專注在營運細節
Rule #5 – Always speak with competitors.一定要跟競爭者多聊聊
Rule #6 – Do not delegate.別假手他人


這幾點其實對從事創投與投資的人也很有用。我們不妨從這家公司的這些報告中，學習一些實地審查的精神、方法與思考。真功夫，果然都在這些細節裡。功夫夠深的話，真的可以靠放空獲大利!
不過我沒那麼貪心，功力可以培養向他們看齊，執行上還是專心價值投資。平凡人，平凡賺就好。